NFL Picks 2020 Week 14 The analysis and the pool for the fourteenth week of action on the grid
En this of the bets applies that of “there is no evil that does not cure, but neither good that lasts 100 years”. You are never as good as your best weeks, nor as bad as your bad ones, but that doesn’t mean that week 13 brought a relieved smile.
Yes, we were 56.4% from week 1 to 8, but from 9 to 11, he didn’t hit the sea even when he was on the beach (10-32 against the line). The wave began to change in week 12, with a somewhat incidental 8-8, but 13 was the second best week of the year, 11-4 … and it could have been better Because I believe that only the niners reading was bad (don’t see Josh Allen trashing that defense) because the Eagles had to cover in Green Bay (thanks Aaron Jones for running away and also the late Travis Fulgham for killing the last series), Chicago lost a ‘Chargers-esca’ way to Detroit when painting for push and pull. AtlantaHe had two series to win it against the Saints and they went blank.
Almoner with a club when he should thank the land back at .500. There is no other choice but to continue working to maintain the rhythm in this final stretch, which in addition to analyzing the duels, motivational factors must be considered with teams that are already eliminated and that play the postseason.
We repeat the formula of the past, publishing the Thursday Night pick today, and on Friday afternoon, after the official injury reports, the rest of the forecasts will be released. Notice that this week I do not see it as clear as the previous one and it looks dangerous.
As always, the dotted line according to NFL Picks Watch entre parntesis. Winner vs. Uppercase Betting Line. Doubts, suggestions and comments, we will gladly address them on Twitter @ hlazzeri13.
The duel of what is perhaps the worst Super Bowl in history is repeated, and they say it the shortage of points not because my Rams lost (yes, I go to the Rams, but I am an eternal pessimist with my teams). The line started at Rams -6.5 and has been falling to -4.5, although it seems that most of the money is with LA We will call it “The Belichick Effect”, because ‘The Monk’ is the only thing the Pats seem to have an advantage, much less like a couple of february in Atlanta.
The narrative is that Belichick knows how to defend Goff, as he did in Super Bowl LIII and his pupil Brian Flores replied in the second quarter of the Rams-Dolphins couple of weeks ago. Press it and the errors will arrive. Thing is, New England is not the defense of two years ago (they were THE WORST in efficiency a couple weeks ago, improving to … 23 after Gilmore’s return from injury) and maybe Miami is more talented right now, especially with the frontals, due to such low Covid. And Goff suffers with pressure … if they reach him, because he has better numbers when they load him 5 or more than just with 4 front. If you send more people to the boarding and do not arrive, it could hurt you, as it happened in Tampa. There is one of the first keys that will define this matter.
Another key: the Pats running game. New England is hardly going to be successful in attack, and not be guided by Cam’s arm. Yes, they have won 4 of their last 5, but it hurts to watch Cam pitch, who just became the pFirst QB since Brady Quinn in 2009 to throw for 100 yards or less in consecutive wins.
The Rams are the sixth best defense in efficiency, exceptional against the pass and Top 10 against the run. Here’s a caveat: they’re going to face an atypical offense, which uses a fullback (21 staff) more than any other team in the NFL. But this makes them predictable: if there is a double runner, they run in 72% of the plays (You don’t have to be a genius to hit 3 out of 4). LA has only ever faced such a team, San Francisco, and they lost both games … although it should be noted that the damage was done in passes (60% success rate, 6.6 yards per attempt, for just 3.3 per carry). Maybe they can make their weight, because the Rams are the sixth-most nickel-using team (5 safe). If the Pats are successful early, LA could choose to add more linebackers and maybe that way the air game will open up a bit more. Even if Cam, Michel and Harris run well, this points to being like SB53: the Pats aren’t going to score much. So the heart of the matter will be whether Goff can limit errors. I think so and for a personal reason.
Belichick’s defenses challenge you to do what you don’t want to do. In the Super Bowl, they challenged the Rams to run straight through the middle, not out into the zone, and between bad field position the entire game and McVay’s stubbornness to use three receivers, they didn’t do it enough. New England’s weakness is double tight end formations. The Rams and McVay started the league’s 11th Personnel Revolution … but maybe last week they sidestepped it.
Despite not having left tackle Whitworth since the middle of the game against Seattle, against Tampa and San Fran they occupied 11 personnel in 68% and 85% of plays in the first half. In Arizona, a team that often suffers against TE, they used just 31% three receivers in the first two quarters. And on staff 12 they shone, as they have done all year. The running game was revived as before Whitworth’s injury. In fact, two of LA’s best games (Chicago and Seattle) were the ones that used the most staff 12. And they have enough players to do it with Higbee (the most complete), Everett (most catcher) and Mundt (most blocker, but against Chicago without Higbee, he had 48 yards).
What hurts the Pats the most? Staff 12, in which they allow more than 2 yards more per pass attempt than in staff 11 (9.6 vs. 7.1), although on the ground they drop from 4.7 yards per carry against staff 11 to 4.2. Those, Arizona in week 11 ran for 56% success and 4.6 yards on 18 attempts from staff 12, none of which was from Kyler. They are flimsy. McVay has to admit that and he did it against Chicago, who in the past tormented them as much as Belichick and his pupils, and the Rams dominated on offense and defense on lockdown. And let’s not talk about the Rams having this revenge game marked, as the same one against the Bears.
Is there a universe where Goff makes mistakes and the Pats win the game? S. Does it seem like a lot of points? Not quite, because Arizona was a favorite in Foxboro by less than a field goal, with the Pats winning miraculously, and now the line is only 2 points higher in LA, courtesy of the beat up the Chargers (Fun fact: only 30 times since 1970 has a team scored 42+ without reaching 300 yards of offense, 13 this millennium alone), but that was more the game the other LA team folded hands than the Pats’ offensive brilliance. .
Yes, there will be scholars who read the trend what says that Belichick is 10-2 on Thursdays other than week 1 with the Pats … but that does two things because ya no is Thomas Edwards Patrick Brady as QB. And to knock down that statistic, the two defeats of the Monk They were in 2000 (with Bledsoe) and in 2008 (with Cassel). Other trend: Cam 2-6-1 on Thursday against the line. Any argument can be defended using the appropriate figures; It is not lying, but telling part of the painting and not the whole painting. That’s why you don’t bet with trends, but by analyzing the games … and in the analysis, I don’t see how the Pats achieve something in attack.
So the play that I like the most is the Under of the total of the Pats. I was at 19.5, you can buy at 20 to have a backup key number and I think you’re on the other side. And now there is neither Brady nor Gronk to rescue them against a very good Rams defense, which shares a scheme with Denver, which this year already hit the Pats 18-12 in Foxboro. Something like this will be this story. RAMS (-4.5) 24, Patriots 16.
The rest of the forecasts on Friday afternoon
- Week 1: 8-8 straight, 9-6-1 against the betting line
- Week 2: 13-3 straight, 8-8 against the betting line
- Week 3: 9-6-1 direct, 8-8 against the betting line
- Week 4: 7-8 straight, 7-7-1 against the betting line
- Week 5: 11-3 straight, 8-6 against the betting line
- Week 6: 8-6 straight, 7-7 against the betting line
- Week 7: 11-3 direct, 8-6 against the betting line
- Week 8: 9-5 direct, 11-3 against the betting line
- Week 9: 7-7 direct, 1-13 against the betting line
- Week 10: 7-7 straight, 5-9 against the betting line
- Week 11: 5-9 straight, 4-10 against the betting line
- Week 12 (Thanksgiving): 10-6 straight, 8-8 against the betting line
- Week 13: 10-5 direct, 11-4 against the betting line