Super Bowl 2021 Kansas City won 27-24 in week 12. Will history repeat itself?
Lthe Chiefs and the Buccaneers faces will be seen in the Super Bowl LV for the second time this season. Kansas City went to beat Tampa Bay in week 12 on their way to being the best team in the American Conference and are now in options to be the first two-time champion since Tom Brady’s Patriots did it in 2003 and 2004, but for that they will have to beat the first team to play the Super Bowl in their stadium.
Although there will not be a packed stage and the fans are not completely in favor of the local, history says that the team that won the first game does not repeat in the Super Bowl. There have been ‘repetitions’ in 13 previous occasions and the losers took the Vince Lombardi trophy in seven.
The repetitions between 1977 and 1994 were quite recurrent. In those 18 editions, half were games that had occurred in the regular season. In the last 25 editions of the Super Bowl, it only happened four times and Tom Brady and the Patriots were involved in the last three.
There is not a very marked trend in the background. Viewing the bet lines obtained in Pro Football Reference,only twice the favorite changed for the Super BowlIn XXV largely due to Phil Simms’ injury, and in XVI, although it was a change of 8 points from the first game. As general data: Super Bowl replay favorites are 7-6 straight and 6-6-1 against the line.
A highlight: three of the matches of regular season were won by more than 10 points and in all, the winner was repeated. Point for Tampa Bay, because they cut to lose by just three points.
The Chiefs were favorites at Tampa Bay by 3.5 points in Week 12. Only three previous teams won the first road game as favorites and two lost the Super Bowl: the Rams in XXXVI and the Patriots in the imperfect season in XLII. The other, the 49ers, took one of the biggest beatings in history in the XXIX.
Kansas City is the eighth team in Super Bowl replays to win on the road the regular season game. Of the previous seven, four lost the Super Bowl despite being favorites (the aforementioned Rams and Patriots, as well as the Bills in XXVIII and XXV).
The betting line for Super Bowl LV opened with Kansas City favorites by 3.5 points and already dropped to 3. This is never-before-seen territory, because a team had never been a favorite both games by 3.5 points or less and played the first game away. Washington’s only close antecedent against the Raiders in the 18th, leading by 2 points in the regular season before being crushed 38-9 on Super Sunday.
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