NFL MVP, Super Bowl Futures Clock

October 12, 2021

Over the span of five weeks, the NFL is beginning to take shape and it seems we have a clearer picture of which teams are true contenders and which teams are simply knocking on the door. Consequently, the futures market reflects this perception, although the playoffs don’t start for another three months.

Super Bowl Options

The Chiefs failed in the biggest game of the weekend and are now under .500 at 2-3. It’s almost impossible for us to imagine these struggles continuing, given we’ve only seen them triumph with an MVP at quarterback coming off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. While I realize things can change and their next three opponents are Washington, Tennessee and the Giants, the Chiefs’ defense is atrocious and will likely prove insurmountable. The fact that they only have the third shortest odds at +750 is insane. I cannot recommend a play. Remember, the “Super Bowl hangover” has been proven over time. The 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2018 Patriots are the only teams to lose a Super Bowl and win it the following season.

A week ago, in this same space, I explained how the 20/1 odds seemed like an exercise price for an emerging Los Angeles Chargers team. Following a home win over Cleveland, the Chargers now have odds of 16/1. I still think it is an attractive price for two reasons. First, after that third loss, Kansas City falls behind two complete games and lost the first meeting with Los Angeles at home. Second, the Bolts travel to Baltimore on Sunday and then have a favorable schedule left, all things considered.

What if the resurgent Dallas Cowboys defense is legitimate? It’s hard to consistently rule him out, just because of last season’s shortcomings on defense under a different coordinator who was constantly put in tight spots by an offense that had lost star QB Dak Prescott through injury. Dallas is the only NFL team this season that is 5-0 ATS and it sure looks like an intriguing play with odds of 14/1. The Cowboys are now favored by four points in New England. Yes, Mike McCarthy is scoring more than a field goal to Bill Belichick. Before the season, the Pats were a home favorite of about one point.

Super Bowl Futures

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550
Buffalo Bills +550
Kansas City Chiefs + 750
Los Angeles Rams +850
Green Bay Packers +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1200
Arizona Cardinals +1300
Cleveland Browns +1 400
Dallas Cowboys +1400
Los Angeles Chargers +1600

MVP options

As I predicted, Buffalo’s victory led Josh Allen to serious MVP consideration. He is now a betting favorite with Kyler Murray at +500. I just can’t pull the trigger on any of the other top five players: Tom Brady, Prescott, and Justin Herbert.

I don’t blame anyone for backing NFC quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford at 11/1 odds. Their teams, the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams, are tied with the Tampa Bay Bucs with one loss and are one game behind undefeated Arizona. The question is whether one of them can lead his team to the single seed. Personally, I would wait longer to see if I can anticipate more results and then try to find value in this one-way betting market.

MVP Favorites

Kyler Murray +500
Josh Allen +500
Tom Brady +600
Dak Prescott +700
Justin Herbert +700
Aaron Rodgers +1100
Lamar Jackson +1000
Matt Stafford +1100
Patrick Mahomes +1,500

Other prizes to see

  • Although five quarterbacks were selected within the top 15 picks in this year’s NFL Draft, a wide receiver is now the betting favorite for offensive rookie of the year. Ja’Marr Chase (+375) has reunited with his former college teammate Burrow and is seventh with 456 receiving yards and tied for second with five receiving touchdowns.

  • I recommended it last week and will do the same now. Dak Prescott is just -190 to win the Returning Player of the Year award. It is as safe a thing as in the world of gambling. The quarterback is currently fourth on the MVP betting board and it sure looks like only a serious injury would jeopardize his path to cementing this honor. Joe Burrow (+750) is part of the discussion and so is Jameis Winston (1/12).