Notable bets: Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, and Chicago punters know it

October 18, 2021

It’s becoming a Windy City tradition: When Aaron Rodgers comes to town, Chicago punters know what to do: carry the Packers.

On Sunday, with the Packers in Chicago to face the Bears, the betting houses in Illinois were flooded with bets in Green Bay. In fact, there was a higher percentage of betting on the Packers at some Illinois bookmakers than in other states:

• At Caesars Sportsbook in Illinois, 87% of the money went to the Packers to cover the 5.5-point margin. But at every Caesars sportsbook in every state, there were actually more bets, and more money, on the Bears more points than the Packers.

• At the BetRivers sportsbook in Illinois, 95% of the money was in the Packers to win outright. In other states, the Packers attracted only 75% of the money at BetRivers bookmakers.

“Bears fans seem to have come to terms with their fate with Rodgers and are trying to make some money along the way,” said BetRivers sports betting manager Zach Schlouch. Supporting Rodgers and the pack against the Bears has been a winning strategy for years. With Sunday’s 24-14 win, Rodgers improved to 22-5 outright and 20-7 against the spread against the Bears. He is 11-3 outright and against the spread at Soldier Field.

As he pointed out to the Chicago faithful on Sunday, Rodgers actually owns the Bears.

Notables of the NFL

• Veteran Las Vegas bookmaker Johnny Avello, now with DraftKings, summed up Sunday’s NFL results for his store in two words: “Pretty terrible.”

The NFL favorites were (9-3) straight and (8-4) against the spread on Sunday and, for the second week in a row, the betting public topped the books.

Avello added that “there is always next week”, but that means that the bookmakers can afford to keep the lights on after the beating on Sunday …

• The Chiefs’ coverage of a touchdown in a 31-13 win over the soccer team was the worst decision of the morning for several bookmakers. Kansas City was on a 3-13 streak against the spread, but the betting crowd was undaunted and sided with the favorite Chiefs.

Bettors also did well with the Rams, who crushed the Giants 38-11 as favorites by 8 points, and the aforementioned Packers.

“We won just one game in the morning on the entire card. That was when the Ravens beat the Chargers, and it really wasn’t a huge win for us,” Jeff Stoneback, director of BetMGM sports betting in Nevada, said on Sunday. evening. “When the favorites go 7-1 [in the morning games], It’s hard. “

• With the initial streak of hits for the favorites, parlay responsibility increased for the sportsbooks in the afternoon, much of which depends on the Cowboys against the Patriots.

Dallas, which closed as a consensus 4-point favorite, followed the Patriots twice in the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter. The Cowboys managed to force overtime and then covered the spread with a touchdown pass from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb in a 35-29 victory.

Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, called the Cowboys’ return “the death blow” and said Dallas covering rather than losing directly caused an eight-figure swing against the home. He caused a seven-figure swing against the house at the PointsBet sportsbook, which signaled a high percentage of moneyline bets that were connected to the Cowboys.

• Caesars reported placing eight NFL bets of $ 500,000 on Sunday. Seven of them won, and only the soccer team failed to deliver.

“Great day for our customers,” Mucklow said in a text message.

• The Cowboys improved to 6-0 against the spread, ATS ‘best start to the season since the 2018 Chiefs started 7-0.

• A bettor with Caesars in Michigan last week made a $ 50,000 bet on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl last week with odds of 14-1. The bet would pay $ 700,000 net.

• The “Joe’s,” as the betting public is often called, also outperformed the pros on Sundays, a common occurrence when the bookmakers lose. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas reported accepting bets from clients they have learned to respect: Bears +6, Football Team +7, Colts -10, Vikings pick ’em, Bengals -3, Giants +10.5 and Broncos -4.

• The Borgata in Atlantic City, NJ, also reported strong action on the Giants throughout the week.

“The ticket count was very uneven in favor of the Rams,” Tom Gable, director of sports betting for The Borgata, said in an email to ESPN Sunday night, “but more than 85% of the money was in the Giants here – money throughout the week on the Giants, and he kept reducing that number to 7.5, where he closed out. “

• Las Vegas betting interest on the Raiders skyrocketed earlier in the season, when the team had a 3-0 start. The Raiders’ opening win over the Ravens on Monday Night Football produced one of the biggest losses in a single regular season game that some Nevada sportsbooks had suffered. But betting support for the home team heated up last week when the Raiders lost two in a row and coach Jon Gruden resigned. Las Vegas responded with a 34-24 victory at Denver.

“We actually did very well when the Raiders beat the Broncos,” John Murray, SuperBook executive director, said Sunday night. “But with Dallas winning and somehow covering, we’re in a hole and we have all those parlays taking us to the Dodgers and Steelers tonight and most of all, the Bills on Monday Night Football. It could get really ugly if we don’t.” . Don’t get any of these dogs to win. “

The Bills are consensus favorites on the 6-point road over the Titans on Monday.

College football notables

• Clemson started as a 2-point underdog to Pittsburgh on Circa Sports. The line grew to Pitt -4 on Sunday afternoon. If the line holds, it will be the first time Clemson has been an underdog in an ACC game since 2016.

• Oklahoma first-year quarterback Caleb Williams is 25-1 to win the Heisman Trophy at Caesars Sportsbook.

• “I just wanted to score. That’s a quality defense. You don’t know how things will play out the rest of the year. We had a chance to score, so we did.” – Kentucky coach Mark Stoops on his decision to call a timeout with seven seconds left and the Wildcats trailing Georgia 30-7.

Kentucky, a 22-point underdog, scored on his next play and covered the margin in a 30-13 loss to the top-ranked Bulldogs.

• Projected line: Alabama vs. Georgia -1 via Circa Sports college football bookmaker Matt Metcalf.

Opening lines

[via Circa Sports, the first sportsbook to post weekly college football lines]
Illinois at No.7 Penn State -17, 49.5
Northwest at n. 5 Michigan -19, 53.5
No. 2 Cincinnati -24, 41.5 in the Navy
Wisconsin -5, 41.5 at No. 25 Purdue
Clemson at No. 23 Pittsburgh -2, 50.5
No. 10 Oregon -2, 65.5 at UCLA
No. 8 State of Oklahoma in the State of Iowa -7, 45.5
LSU at No. 12 Ole Miss -12, 75.5
Tennessee at No. 4 Alabama -29, 67.5
No. 5 Ohio State -19, 60.5 at Indiana
USC at No. 13 Notre Dame -4, 53.5

What were the odds?

-20,000: Liberty odds against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. UL-Monroe, which closed as a 33-point, 40-1 consensus underdog on the money line, won 31-28. It’s the biggest upset in a game involving two FBS opponents since 2012, and it paid well for a punter, who backed UL-Monroe at Caesars and won $ 17,910.90.

37.5 – The consensus closing total at Army-Wisconsin, the lowest of the season. Wisconsin won 20-14.

-8 – The Dallas Mavericks were 8-point favorites over the Charlotte Hornets in preseason action Wednesday. The Mavs won 127-59. NBA preseason games attract about 20% of the control of regular season games, according to PointsBet, where 66% of the money wagered on the Mavs-Hornets game was on the Hornets, who lost by 68 points.

+2200 – Chicago Sky’s odds of winning the WNBA title going into preseason. Sky finished off Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 on Sunday to win the championship.

+225 – Kevin Durant’s odds of averaging more than 30.1 points per game – Michael Jordan’s career average – this season at WynnBet. In recognition of the NBA’s 75th season, the sportsbook released various accessories that combine today’s stars with all-time greats.