NFL, college football betting market watch

October 21, 2021


Here’s our weekly look at how the college football and NFL betting markets are shaping up heading into the weekend.

For consistency, betting lines, totals and percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. Betting percentages are not specific to the current or total line and are designed to provide a snapshot of the initial action. The anticipation lines were offered before last week’s games. Most of the numbers reopened Sunday night.


NFL Market Watch

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (Thursday)

Advance line from last week: Brown -6, 44.5
Sunday opening: Brown -5, 44
Wednesday: Browns -2, 41
Propagation action: 57% of the bets are on the Browns, but 93% of the money wagered is on the Broncos.
Total action: 61% of the bets are over, but 71% of the money bet is under.

Note: Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield (shoulder) was ruled out Wednesday. The Keenum backup case will be the start for the Broncos. The line fell from -3.5 to -2 after the Mayfield news. If the line holds with Cleveland as the favorite, this will be the first time this season that Denver will be an underdog. Caesars Sportsbook reported a $ 500,000 bet on the Broncos +4, leading to the unbalanced betting divisions.

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants

Advance line from last week: Panthers -3, 44.5
Sunday opening: Panthers -2.5, 44
Wednesday: Panthers -3 (pair), 43
Propagation action: 87% of the bets and 88% of the money wagered is in Panthers.
Total action: 56% of the bets are over, but 97% of the money bet is under.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

Advance line from last week: Dolphins -2.5, 47.5
Sunday opening: Choose them, 48
Wednesday: Falcons -2.5, 48
Propagation action: 56% of the bets and 76% of the money wagered is on the Falcons.
Total action: 58% of the bets are under, but 76% of the money bet is over.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Advance line from last week: Patriots -7, 43.5
Sunday opening: Patriots -6.5, 43
Wednesday: Patriots -7, 42.5
Propagation action: 92% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the Patriots.
Total action: 56% of the bets are finished, but 57% of the money wagered is finished.

Note: The Patriots are shaping up to be a big risk for bookmakers this week. At BetRivers bookmakers, more bets have been placed on New England minus points than on any other team. The action is equally uneven at DraftKings.

Washington Soccer Team at Green Bay Packers

Advance line from last week: Packers -7.5, 50
Sunday opening: Packers -10, 49
Wednesday: Packers -9, 49
Propagation action: 74% of the bets and 61% of the money wagered is on the Packers.
Total action: 50% of the bets and 55% of the money bet over.

Note: Bettors were pricing the big money line on the Packers (-420) at bookmakers BetRivers, where Green Bay had attracted more money line bets than any other team.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Advance line from last week: Ravens -6, 48.5
Sunday opening: Ravens -6.5, 47.5
Wednesday: Ravens -6, 47
Propagation action: 71% of the bets are on the Ravens, but 52% of the money wagered is on the Bengals.
Total action: 88% of the bets and 90% of the money wagered has ended.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Advance line from last week: Heads -3, 56.5
Sunday opening: Heads -4.5, 56.5
Wednesday: Heads -5.5, 57
Propagation action: 55% of the bets and 74% of the money wagered is on the Chiefs.
Total action: 71% of the bets and 87% of the money wagered is over.

Note: The Chiefs and Buccaneers are the only two teams that have been favored in every game.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams

Advance line from last week: Rams -13.5, 49.5
Sunday opening: Rams -15.5, 50
Wednesday: Rams -15, 50
Propagation action: 75% of the bets and 50% of the money wagered is on the Rams.
Total action: 55% of the bets are under, but 53% are over.

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

Advance line from last week: Raiders -2.5, 48
Sunday opening: Raiders -3, 48
Wednesday: Raiders -3, 49
Propagation action: 74% of the bets and 94% of the money wagered is on the Raiders.
Total action: 68% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is over.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals

Advance line from last week: Cardinals -14, 49.5
Sunday opening: Cardinals -17, 48
Wednesday: Cardinals -18.5, 47.5
Propagation action: 68% of the bets and 99% of the money wagered is on the Cardinals.
Total action: 69% of the bets are over, but 61% of the money bet is under.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported placing a $ 520,000 bet on the Cardinals -17, taking into account the deviant money splits.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Advance line from last week: Buccaneers -10, 48.5
Sunday opening: Buccaneers -12.5, 48
Wednesday: Buccaneers -12, 47
Propagation action: 61% of the bets are on the Buccaneers, but 97% of the money wagered is on the Bears.
Total action: 61% of the bets are over and 91% of the money is under.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported placing a $ 520,000 bet on the Bears +13, leading to lopsided money on the Bears.

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

Advance line from last week: 49ers -5, 44.5
Sunday opening: 49ers -4, 44.5
Wednesday: 49ers -4, 44
Propagation action: 68% of the bets are on the Colts, but 57% of the money wagered is on the 49ers.
Total action: 70% of the bets are above, but 97% of the money wagered is below.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (Monday)

Advance line from last week: Santos -3, 43.5
Sunday opening: Santos -3.5, 44
Wednesday: Santos -5, 42.5
Propagation action: 56% of the bets and 91% of the money wagered is on the Saints.
Total action: 54% of the bets are over, but 98% of the money is under.


A bookmaker’s approach to college football lines

Circa Sports is responsible for the first college football lines to hit the betting market each week. The book publishes its opening lines at 11am PT on Sundays and offers $ 3,000 betting limits for all participants, including professional bettors. Within the industry, Circa Sports is what is considered a “smart book.” Their limits grow rapidly throughout the week and as the start draws near they will be among the largest in the betting market.

Matt Metcalf, director of sports betting at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, shares his betting approach with ESPN this football season.

Illinois-Penn State Line Movement

Metcalf says his Penn State -17 front row reflected, in his opinion, QB Sean Clifford of the Nittany Lions playing this week against Illinois. Clifford’s status remained uncertain earlier in the week with an undisclosed injury that pulled him out of Penn State’s loss to Illinois. Bettors disagreed on the number and backed Penn State to -24 in the hours after Metcalf posted the opening line on Sunday.

“I think we underestimate how much [bettors] they are anti-Illinois, “Metcalf said.

‘The game I don’t understand is NC State-Miami’

Metcalf believed he had NC State properly qualified when he opened the Wolfpack as a 2-point underdog in Miami. However, the limit bets came at NC State, leading the Wolfpack to a 4-point favorite.

“Obviously, the market doesn’t like Miami,” Metcalf said. “That was a strange game because the total also moved like eight points (61.5 to 51.5 as of Wednesday), so we thought we missed a Miami quarterback injury or something like that. We were very far and in total in total. that game, which doesn’t happen very often, without missing an injury. It still amazes me how that moved. “

Alabama-Georgia potential

Metcalf would currently have Georgia as a 1-point favorite against Alabama.


www.espn.com