The market lost patience with the agreement with the IMF and is betting on higher devaluation and inflation

December 24, 2021

The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, and the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva. Photo: Reuters

Before 4 pm yesterday, the last financial day of the week, operators and their clients were wishing each other happy holidays, as were the counterparts in the United States market that will not operate today for the Christmas Eve holiday either.

It was a brief round with little turnover. But despite that, financial dollars opened strong. The MEP started the wheel at $ 207 but then offers appeared that found no buyers and closed at $ 199.21 (- $ 1.35). The cash settlement had a similar path. During the opening it traded at $ 210 but fell at the end to $ 208.59, the same value of the previous wheel.

However, the “blue”, the free dollar for small and medium-sized savers, had a sharp rise from $ 3.50 to $ 204 and was very buyer for Monday. In the suburbs, up to $ 208 was operated.

In other words, those who paid salaries and bonuses were sellers and those who collected them, buyers.

In the wholesale market, with few operations, the dollar closed 3 cents higher at $ 102.31. The Central Bank was able to buy USD 10 million due to low demand from importers. Reserves increased by USD 3 million to 39,156 million.

Debt bonds were balanced and country risk fell 3 units to 1,751 basis points.

But Investors did not stop covering themselves before a probable devaluation because they do not see a future for this “Plan Hold” that the Government tries to implement until the agreement with the IMF is reached. For this reason, the TV22 that adjusts for the price of the official dollar (dollar linked) increased 0.20% and the TV23, 1.79%.

Those who bet on inflation turned to the bond with the best yield and the longest term, the Discount in pesos, which increased 1.23%. So far this month it has risen 10.23% with a 7% rate of return. Boncer 2022, in turn, advanced 0.56%.

The Stock Market, with deals for only $ 712 million, reduced because the big hands left before the market, had a good wheel. The S&P Merval, the leading stock index, rose 1.43%. The best happened through Telecom (+3,43%), BYMA (+ 3.12%) and Ternium (+2,99%).

The ADRs – certificates of holdings of shares that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange – also suffered today’s holidays and operated $ 2,897 million, 20% less than the previous round. Hikes predominated in the panel. Only 3 certificates closed in red. The most prominent were Edenor (+8,47%), Supervielle bench (+ 4.15%) and Telecom (+3,41%).

One week from the end of the year, the market’s patience seems to be wearing thin. He sees the agreement with the IMF far away because there is no support from the opposition. The arm wrestling in the budget discussion showed that there will not be an agreement on the political arc and that is a negative signal for the multilateral organization, which fears that it will not be able to collect the debt even with new conditions. Because, Investors continue and will continue to bet on devaluation and inflation.


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