The Ukrainian presidency considered this Sunday that the possibilities of reaching a “diplomatic solution” to the crisis with Russia are “considerably superior” to those of a military “escalation”.
“The chances of finding a diplomatic solution to a de-escalation are considerably higher than the threat of a new escalation,” said Myhailo Podoliak, chief adviser to the Ukrainian administration, after warnings from US intelligence that Moscow is intensifying its preparations for an invasion of Ukraine. large scale to that country.
“A significant concentration of Russian troops near our borders (…) has been maintained since last spring,” but its objective is “to cause massive psychological pressure,” he added.
Russia carries out “troop rotations”, maneuvers and arms movements, the official continued in his written comments, which were provided to AFP by the presidential press service.
However, Ukraine and its Western allies must “prepare for all possible scenarios and we are doing it 100%,” Podoliak warned.
US intelligence, for its part, considers that Russia has already deployed 70% of the military apparatus necessary for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, which would reach a sufficient capacity, that is, some 150,000 troops, to launch its eventual offensive within two weeks.
According to US officials, their intelligence services have not yet been able to establish whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to take action or not, but he handles all possible options, ranging from a partial invasion of the enclave Donbas separatist until full invasion.
If Putin opted for the radical, he could surround the capital Kiev and overthrow President Volodimir Zelenski in just 48 hours, always according to these officials.
They also warned that this possible conflict would have a high human cost, with the risk of causing the death of between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians, between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers.
It would also cause a displacement of between one and five million refugees, mainly towards Poland.